The Law of large numbers in sports betting

The Law of large numbers

We are well aware that sports betting is a combination of luck and calculated/analytical knowledge. However, what does physics have to do with it? Before you get bored, don’t think of this as something you’ll have difficulty understanding. Relax; it’s nothing like sitting in your old-school science classroom.

The truth is that the Law of large numbers is a straightforward strategy bettors use to keep their heads in the game and make successful bets. Also, it can apply to different areas of sports betting, but here’s how it applies to sports betting for you as a bettor.

The Law of large numbers

This probability theory was established in the 17th century by Jacob Bernoulli. It simply states that the larger the sample of an event, the closer it results to accuracy. It, thus, experiments with the result of repeating an event severally. This is often exemplified with a coin toss illustration. So, in tossing a coin, there are two probable outcomes: a head or a tail, each with a 50% confirming percentage. If you toss the coin three times, there’s a chance each toss will have the same outcome. It’s also still possible for the result to be the same with five to ten tosses. However, it is improbable for the outcome to be the same with 100 tosses. The result gets to even out more with, say, 1000 tosses. This means that the more you toss the coin, the closer your outcome is to the balanced probability of 50% heads and 50% tails. 

The coin toss is the most straightforward illustration for confirming the Law of large numbers. The theory asserts that “the result will revert to the mean value in the long run”. And this is how it is applied to gambling. An example is playing on a slot machine, which operates with a random number generator and a set RTP (return to player). Players who have spent a considerable amount playing without winning continue to play with the prospect of a big win following their trending loss. But, of course, this tactic can only work if the player has played numerous times to reach the RTP.

How the Law of large numbers applies to sports betting

How does this Law apply to the gambling world, specifically in betting? It is used by many gamblers today. In fact, the Martingale betting system is based on this Law as it states that every consecutive loss raises your probability of winning a bet. This law has had real time wins and can be used in any land-based or online sportsbook; you can try it on 20Bet as long as you know the rules. 

Also, the betting system, progressive draw strategy is bred from this Law. All you need to do is double your stake with every loss. This is popularly used in National team competitions, including the FIFA world cup, European Championships and so on, with their matches scheduled differently. To bet on odds, you put your money on a minimum of 3.00 odds that can increase in games with strong favorite players or teams. You don’t have to worry about analyzing news or stats, just put your stake on the draw and wait for a confirmation. If the match doesn’t result in a draw, you place another draw bet and double your stake. You do this until you eventually win the bet.

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